Matchday 12
Lincoln City welcome Burnley to Sincil Bank in a game that could be much more important than people might initially think. We are 12 games into the Championship season, and both teams find themselves towards the wrong end of the table, with Lincoln sitting 18th and Burnley down in 22nd. There are only four points separating the sides, so a win for the Imps could give us some much-needed breathing space and drag another team closer to the relegation battle.
Burnley are a club that have spent several recent seasons competing in the Premiership, and they will have arrived in the Championship expecting to be challenging towards the top end of the table. Instead, they have found themselves struggling to turn their quality into consistent results. It is a reminder that having players with top-flight experience doesn't automatically guarantee success in this division.
The biggest news coming out of Burnley ahead of this fixture is that Jamie Vardy will miss the game with a back injury. The experienced striker is exactly the sort of player you would expect to cause problems for Championship defenders, so his absence is a significant boost for Lincoln. Burnley will also be without Jacob Bruun Larsen. Their manager, Nicky Hayen, has reported nine players unavailable through injury, although there could be some positive news regarding Josh Cullen's potential return to the squad as he is an experienced international player.
That said, we cannot afford to approach this game thinking that Burnley area walk in the park. They still have quality throughout their squad, and if we allow them time and space on the ball, they are more than capable of punishing us.
Lincoln's XI
I’ve started to realise that predicting the starting XI is becoming just as difficult as predicting the result itself. With suspensions, injuries and players fighting for their places, there are always a few positions up for debate. Nevertheless, this is how I would approach the game.
I would stick with our familiar 5-2-3 formation. We are not a side that needs to dominate possession for 90 minutes to be effective. Our strengths lie in pressing, counter-attacking and making life uncomfortable for the opposition. The important thing is that we remain organised defensively while giving our forward players enough freedom to exploit the spaces Burnley leave behind.
Wickens should start between the sticks, although there has been a few goals leaked in the last 3 games (11) conceding six against West Ham, there will naturally be questions about the defensive unit, but I wouldn't put all the blame on the goalkeeper we had a centre back and a central midfielder dismissed after only 23 minutes.
At the back, I would look towards Coubis, Elerewe Towler, Bradley and Reach as part of a defensive unit that can offer a mixture of physicality and experience, depending on how the manager decides to organise the five defenders. Elerewe’s red card has rightfully been overturned, while Hamer remains unavailable through suspension. That means we have fewer options than we would ideally want, and it makes defensive organisation even more important.
The wing-back positions will be crucial. Reach can provide an attacking threat from the left, while the right-hand side needs someone willing to get forward and support the attack without leaving us exposed on the counter. Against a side with Burnley's resources, we cannot afford to have both wing-backs caught too high up the pitch at the same time.
In midfield, I would look towards Varfolomeev and Konak, with McGrandles available again after serving his suspension. Having McGrandles back is a welcome boost because he brings energy, work rate and experience. It will be interesting to see whether the manager brings him straight back into the starting XI or keeps the same midfield that finished the previous game as I thought Konak showed a lot of energy and looked really good battling for possession.
The midfield battle could decide this contest. Burnley will want to establish control, but if we press intelligently and force them into mistakes, we can turn possession into opportunities. We don't need to outplay them in every department; we need to make the most of the moments when they are vulnerable.
Further forward, Hackett and Jefferies could provide the width and creativity, with Rob Street another option to lead the line. Mikkel Ladefoged could also be given an opportunity, particularly if the manager wants a more physical presence up front. It would be harsh to leave Ben House out of the squad he will run down the Burnley goalkeeper and defenders and with them lacking motivation if he unnerves them early on we could see some stressed out players.
The Substitutions
The bench could be particularly important if the game remains close into the second half. McGrandles is an option if he doesn't start, while Street, Ladefoged and the available wide players could provide fresh energy in the final third.
I would look to make attacking changes around the 60–70-minute mark, Olaofe for House and Ogbene for Hacket but only if we are struggling to create chances. Then McGrandles for Konak and Honohan for Elder round 80 and finally Oyegoke for Coubis or Towler around the 85 minute mark. There is no point waiting until the final few minutes to introduce players who could change the game. If we are level or chasing a goal, we need to be proactive without completely abandoning our defensive shape.
Analysis
Let's be honest: the recent results have given us plenty to think about. The 6-0 defeat against West Ham was a difficult one to take, particularly at home, and it highlighted how badly things can go when we lose players, but we did play well up until half time, and this is against a team with quality. However, the 2-2 draw away at Millwall was a better response, and coming away with a point from a difficult ground at least showed some resilience.
Now we face a Burnley side that have also been struggling for consistency. They suffered a defeat against Wolves in their last outing, having previously put together a three-game unbeaten run against Derby County, Watford and Charlton Athletic. That suggests they are capable of putting results together, even if they haven't been able to sustain that form.
The absence of Jamie Vardy is particularly interesting from Lincoln's perspective. Vardy's movement, experience and ability to run in behind defenders can make life difficult for any back line. Without him, Burnley lose an experienced attacking option who knows how to punish defensive mistakes. His absence doesn't mean we can relax, but it does remove one of the players I would be most concerned about facing.
They will also be without Bruun Larsen, who has contributed two goals in nine Championship appearances this season. Losing both players limits their attacking options, although they still have other players capable of causing problems. We must not fall into the trap of thinking that an injury list automatically makes a team easy to beat.
For Lincoln, the biggest question is whether we can turn our home advantage into three points. We have struggled to find consistent results at Sincil Bank, and this is the sort of fixture where we need to start changing that. There is no point talking about climbing the table if we cannot take advantage when a team around us arrives with important players missing.
The supporters will have a part to play, too. When the crowd gets behind the team, the atmosphere can give the players an extra lift, particularly during those difficult periods when the opposition starts to dominate. We need to make this an uncomfortable afternoon for Burnley, press them from the start and force them to work for everything.
Tactically, I would like to see us stay compact in the opening stages, avoid giving away cheap possession and look to exploit the space behind their defence. With Vardy missing, there is less reason to worry about his particular threat on the counter, but Burnley can still punish us if we become careless. We need to be disciplined, win the second balls and make our opportunities count. If Ben House plays he will run the goalkeeper and defenders down putting them under stress and hopefully resulting in an early mistake and an early goal for Lincoln.
This is not a game where I would expect Lincoln to dominate from the first whistle. Instead, I think it will be a contest where patience and concentration are important. If we can keep it tight, the longer the game goes on without Burnley scoring, the more pressure they may feel to take risks.
Prediction
I think this is a massive opportunity for Lincoln City. Burnley might have the bigger reputation and the greater resources, but their league position tells us they are not invincible. They arrive with significant injury problems, including the absence of Jamie Vardy, and we need to take advantage of that.
At the same time, our own recent form means we cannot simply assume three points are coming our way. We haven’t had a home win this season, we have played extremely well at home but we haven’t had the Cohen and Shaw fist pump, we might get it tonight.
I am going to predict a 1-1 draw. I would love to see us take all three points, especially with Burnley missing important players, but I need to see more consistency before confidently predicting a home win.
If we can defend properly, keep our shape and show more composure in the final third, there is no reason why we cannot win this game. The opportunity is there, and with the supporters behind us, we need to make sure Burnley know they are in for a difficult afternoon.
Come on, Imps. Let's get behind the lads and make Sincil Bank count and get our first home win!
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